Tag archives: birthrates

As goes California…”

by Family Research Council

January 15, 2013

A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted the challenges that will be facing California, due to

Declining migration and falling birthrates [that] have led to a drop in the number of children in California just as baby boomers reach retirement, creating an economic and demographic challenge for the nation’s most populous state.

California hasn’t always faced demographic challenge. The article continues:

In 1970, six years after the end of the baby boom, children made up more than one-third of California’s population. By 2030, they will account for just one-fifth, according to projections by lead author Dowell Myers, a USC demographer. “We have a massive replacement problem statewide,” Mr. Myers said in an interview.

Demographic decline is a subject the Marriage and Religion Research Institute has analyzed in detail. In his work on the decline of economic growth and population change, Dr. Henry Potrykus looks at the slowdown of GDP growth due to declining numbers of high-human capital wage earners, and he predicts that the U.S. economy will continue to see growth ebb over the coming years. “This slowdown,” Dr. Potrykus says, “is amplified by the retiring of a generation with significant human capital (the baby boom) and its replacement by a generation inadequate in population size to continue the expected and required growth of the macroeconomy.” In other words, the U.S. population will not be able to replace its retirees with an equivalent number of skilled adult workers, due in part to low birth rates.

As the Wall Street Journal Article notes,

[California’s] birthrate fell to 1.94 children per woman in 2010, below the replacement level of 2.1 children, according to the study.California’s rate is lower than the overallU.S.rate of 2.06 children in 2012, according to the Central Intelligence Agency.

This population trend is a significant problem nationally when close to two million people will retire each year for the next 20 years, according to Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.”

As goes California, so goes the nation. 

Two paths diverge in a partisan town

by Jessica Prol

April 11, 2012

The poet Robert Frost once wrote of two paths diverging in a yellow wood. After pondering the merits of each way, he makes a choice.

While our Federal city isnt much of a yellow wood, there are two fiscal paths that diverge in front of our lawmakers. Based on projections from the Congressional Budget Office, President Obama’s budgetary path would substantially increase Federal social benefits as a share of GDPfrom about 16.7 in 2010 to 23.1 percent of GDP in 2085.

In contrast, the path proposed by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) would prevent such an increase by fundamentally reforming Federal health care programs.

In a recent interview with the Christian Broadcasting Networks David Brody, Chairman Ryan articulated the differences:

We want to restore the American dream for everybody in American society so that every person has a chance at equal opportunity to make the most of their lives. The presidents vision, I believe, is to equalize the outcome of peoples lives - not to promote natural rights and equal opportunity, but new government granted rights and equality of outcome. Its a very different vision of what it used to be, and I really think thats where the president is trying to take this country.

While we can assume that the President intends no personal malice towards the American dream, his budget threatens to curtail and redefine it.

Economist and author, John D. Mueller has crunched the numbers on the Presidents budget and compared it to Chairman Ryans alternative. He projects that the U.S. birth rate will fall significantly under current law, from about 2.1 to about 1.75 children per couple in 2085. He further projects that would remain almost exactly at the replacement rate of 2.1 under the proposed Ryan budget, approximating the Social Security Trustees’ Intermediate Assumptions.

Join us today for a lunchtime lecture as Mueller releases his original research and why these birthrate projections even matter.

Two budgetary paths diverge in a partisan town. Taking the one less traveled by might make all the difference.

Register here for the live event, or to attend by webcast.

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